Blakeslee’s Seismic Contradiction

Only seven miles to Los Osos

Not since Hurricane Katrina have a few politicians toyed so dangerously with the lives of thousands.

Recently, State Sen. Sam Blakeslee fought hard for a suspension of the relicensing of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant until “a myriad of questions regarding the seismic setting at the facility are answered.” Blakeslee rode the headlines from Japan to headlines in the U.S.

Yet Blakeslee has remained silent on asking for a suspension of engineering contracts on the nearby Los Osos Wastewater Project, less than eight miles away from the nuclear facility, until a parallel liquefaction study for Los Osos can be completed prior to engineering the sewer project. Any major earthquake in the area is likely to affect both Diablo Canyon and Los Osos.

A geophysicist with a doctorate in earthquake studies from UC Santa Barbara, Blakeslee should know better – and he certainly does.

No one wants to see a nuclear accident at Diablo Canyon like it happened in Japan. Nuclear power is a hot political issue in California and elsewhere, and Blakeslee never misses an opportunity to blow his horn. No one wants to see the widespread damage caused by liquefaction in Japan and New Zealand happen in Los Osos. But the Los Osos sewer is itself a radioactive issue, and Blakeslee won’t touch it, even though the risk of severe liquefaction in Los Osos is greater than the risk of radiation exposure from Diablo.

Post Japan, the public widely views the Diablo plant as an accident waiting to happen, and Blakeslee didn’t build Diablo Canyon. But he did author AB 2701, the assembly bill shifting control of the Los Osos sewer project from the LOCSD to the County. The Los Osos sewer doesn’t have his name on it but might as well. No severe liquefaction in Japan and New Zealand, no high risk of liquefaction in Los Osos, no future repair and replacement costs, and no concessions to public safety will stop the Los Osos sewer project as long as Sam Blakeslee continues to operate with a split personality of politics over science.

There were no plausible reasons not to suspend the relicensing of Diablo Canyon to complete a seismic study, and there are no logical scientific or economic reasons why Blakeslee hasn’t asked the County to temporarily suspend work on the LOWWP until an updated liquefaction analysis — including new information from Japan and New Zealand  – can answer a similar “myriad of questions regarding the seismic setting” for the gravity collection system in a high liquefaction zone.

And it needs to be done now, prior to engineering the sewer project, not after, when the only “soft fixes” will be re-tagged neighborhoods, wholesale evacuation and chemical toilets.

A thorough evaluation of the gravity system with respect to local hazards such as earthquakes, liquefaction and flooding should be required immediately. Such an evaluation is necessary to preserve the intent of the California Coastal Act – and protect Los Osos “Prohibition Zone” homeowners’ Prop 218 sewer assessment of $25,000 per home. If liquefaction had been considered at all in the Rough and Fine Screening reports by Carollo, gravity collection would have been eliminated as a viable alternative a long time ago. Instead, this glaring omission is costing Los Osos ratepayers many millions more than they should ever have to pay, and largely explains why the project is so outrageously overpriced at $200 million.

A significant seismic event on the Central Coast would likely impact both locations, but it doesn’t alarm even one member of the County Board of Supervisors that a shutdown of the Los Sewer sewer system caused by liquefaction would mean either evacuation or chemical toilets, only that a shutdown of Diablo would reduce the state’s electric power supply by about 10%.

CDM did not include liquefaction in its proposal to the County and refuses to explain why the County’s EIR classified the Los Osos area with high liquefaction potential and CDM didn’t address it at all in its technical proposal to the County. Fugro West in San Luis Obispo, CDM’s consultant supposedly working on the update, has also declined to comment on areas of high liquefaction potential it previously certified in March 2004 for the defunct ill-conceived MWH project at the Tri-W site, and other known areas it didn’t identify.

The EIR requires the liquefaction study “prior to approval of the improvement plans for the proposed facilities that are part of the collection system and at the treatment plant site,” yet EIR consultant Michael Brandman Associates and County Public Works have brushed off the liquefaction issue and the importance of the analysis to be done before CDM begins redesigning elements of the collection system, not after. Sweeping public safety under the rug appears to be a team effort.

Supervisor Bruce Gibson, County whip for the sewer, is in total denial that thousands will be forced out of Los Osos because of sewer costs and therefore offers no plan to help homeowners. Blakeslee looks the other way by not pursuing a seismic study for the costly and dangerous Los Osos gravity sewer about to built in what the County has long identified as a high-risk liquefaction zone.

The major unlearned lesson of Japan and New Zealand is a simple one, but remains difficult for Blakeslee and the County Board of Supervisors to grasp: Earthquakes don’t play politics with human lives; only politicians do.

— Ed Ochs

  • Julie

    Can you add a Google Earth image to this photo to show just how close the Diablo is to LO?  I think that would be powerful.

    • http://www.rockofthecoast.com/razor Razor Online

      Actually, Google Earth prohibits any directions to the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant. It’s not even listed in Google Earth. It just says, “restricted area.”

  • Ben DiFatta

    Yes, Ed,  another blind eye by the county.      
    Just the fact that a Nuclear Plant was placed where it’s at now was crazy particully along the coast where the whole pacific plate is in reality called ” the RIM OF FIRE “.   

  • Julie

    Well, that’s too bad, but I’m sure someone in your house could simulate a photo to depict how close Diablo is to LO…hmmm?  Who could do that?  Maybe a photo of Blakslee throwing a rock from Diablo to LO?  It really is a just a stones throw away.

  • Anonymous

    Another great article, well said.

    There certainly is a rather deep disconnect between scientific knowledge and political decisions these days. As you state Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans is a good example. Concern that the levees might break in the midst of a powerful hurricane was widespread knowledge among scientists, engineers and emergency experts.
    Several days after the hurricane breached the levees and flooded the city George W. Bush expressed his ignorance/disdain, ” I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees”.

    According to Fugro West, Inc. 2008, there are nine faults and fault segments that are considered the most capable of producing high ground motion within the project collection area;

    Los Osos Fault, 0.6 miles away, 7.0 Mw
    Hosgri, 7 miles away, 7.5 Mw
    San Luis Range (S.Margin), 9 miles away, 7.2 Mw
    Rinconada, 16 miles away, 7.5 Mw
    Casmalia (Orcut Frontal Fault), 28 miles away, 6.5 Mw
    Lions Head, 33 miles away, 6.6 Mw
    San Juan, 37 miles away, 7.1 Mw
    San Andreas (Cholame) 43 miles away, 7.3 Mw
    Los Alamos- Baseline, 48 miles away, 6.9 Mw

    Not mentioned for some reason is the San Simeon Fault, 30 ? miles away 7.5 Mw and now the newly discovered Shoreline Fault which runs into Estero Bay, 0.5 miles away, 4.5 Mw.

    Several residents have gone to Sam Blakeslee’s office and begged him to address the liquefaction dangers in the County LOWWP Plan and the faulty thinking, to no avail. Others have written respectfully to each Supervisor without the courtesy of a reply. They all seem to be as deaf to liquefaction as the Stone-heads of Easter Island.

    Today, it seems that many fools don’t learn from the lessons of history.

    • Lynette Tornatzky

      Then explain all of the billions in federal financing/support on construction and sales for housing in earthquake-prone California please. Was the type or quality of housing specific to the type of area? NO! 

      The USDA has nothing to say, as the feds have been loaning/guaranteeing money here for years for all kinds of projects – including gravity sewers. The “lynchpin challenge to the gravity system,” are just the wishes in your own head. The “silence” as you put it, is merely a lack of words to address a phantom issue. Please illuminate for all of us the code sections of federal law that forces a community to have a Step system that it does not want.

      • Jack Ginney

        Weren’t you the one who got lambasted at the CSD meeting on Thursday? Really trashy.

    • Ed

      Thanks Fogswamp. I appreciate the efforts of others, past and present, who have brought this issue to Blakeslee and BOS and continue to seek a response in the face of total silence. No one wants to even discuss the issue.

      Public Works has no choice now but to downgrade the well-documented risks from “high” to “moderate” and “moderate” to “low” in the collection area in order to meet this linchpin challenge to the gravity system — as ridiculous as that strategy may sound. The USDA may have something to say about risking federal funds on the bet that a liquefaction event doesn’t occur during the next 40 years — not to mention the risks to SRF, County and homeowners… It’s indefensible and they know it. Therefore the silence, which is evidence in itself.

  • http://www.rockofthecoast.com/razor Razor Online

    DISQUS is experiencing problems. Jack has appeared as “Ed,” and vice versa. Fixing the issue.

  • Jack Ginney

    Liquefaction has been discussed for all of the LOWWP EIRs dating back to the late 1980s. It’s 2011, and there’s still no plans to remedy that issue. The County should be ashamed of themselves.

  • Anonymous

    A cartoon depicting McGoo-Gibson, reading the LOWWP blueprints backwards, like what happened at Diablo during construction, would speak volumes. Or, how about the Titanic heading for the iceberg with Gibson shoveling coal, throttles full-ahead and Blakeslee at the stern with his back turned to what is about to happen as gravity sinks the ship (in crap).

    I guess one can’t fault Blakeslee (R) too harshly for not wanting to get involved in the 200 million dollar fiasco, but if enough folk call and or write him to speak-up as a concerned scientist and not a politician he may work behind the scenes to enlighten the wimpy-whip steering the ship.

    Now read this and quake. Republicans in general are really not known to be terra-firma/climate friendly folk, especially the dirty-fueled politically elected ones, but recently at Diablo they seem to have found common ground. Blakeslee stepped up to the plate with his scientific background requesting a risk assessment be done NOW, not after the quake. You’ve gotta commend the man for that, I would think.

    • http://www.rockofthecoast.com/razor Razor Online

      Thank you for the ideas for political cartoons. They are duly noted and logged into our files for future consideration.

  • Ben DiFatta

    Ed,    keep up the good work of bringing the truth to Los Osos residences.   When Blakeslee brought up his concerns and dangers of seismic activities at the Diablo Power Plant that concern also included the near-by surrounding area’s like Los Osos. The whole Coast of calif. is in the ” Pacific rim of fire ” plate that in recent days have shown us what could happen to us like in Japan and new Zeland. We can avoid the destruction of many lives and property by Getting rid of Gibson and Ogren’s flawed big pipe, deep trenched  Gravity project.
    Vacuum or Low Pressure systems with their small pipe and shallow trenches is the way to go. We can’t afford to rebuild their poor choice for the Gravity sewer again in case of an seisic event. This recent event showed us that Japan nearly blewed themselve’s up…We don’t need that to happen here. Again Blakeslee is silent along with the County and because of their silence or should I say they are hiding in their bunkers from us.